Stout is having its moment in the spotlight—especially Guinness—and recent reports indicate that this momentum could reshape the on-trade landscape. Once considered the domain of older drinkers, stout’s newfound appeal among Gen Z and women is causing shortages in key markets and creating openings for rival brands. As pubs, brewers, and consumers gear up for annual celebrations such as St. Patrick’s Day, the question is: how far will this stout surge go, and what are the broader implications?

According to The Guardian, Guinness sales rose by 20% in the run-up to Christmas last year, with new social media trends and celebrity endorsements playing a major role. This rapid uptick in demand led to a shortage that opened the door to rivals like Murphy’s and Brennan’s. CBC reports a similar Guinness shortfall in Quebec, where a pub ran out of the stout for the first time in 27 years, citing a 25% spike in sales and younger audiences embracing the brand.

Yet it’s not just about Guinness. Scottish Licensed Trade News highlights how venues are capitalising on the broader enthusiasm for all things Irish during St. Patrick’s Day. Irish whiskeys, craft cocktails, and smaller stout brands are stepping into the limelight. While Diageo’s “perfect pint” remains a cornerstone, the publication underscores growing interest in high-quality, ‘heritage-rich’ alternatives that appeal to increasingly discerning consumers.

Meanwhile, Beer Board’s 2024 St. Patrick’s Weekend Report notes an overall 20% decline in draft beer volume compared to the previous year’s holiday weekend. However, stouts bucked that trend, rising in share and revenue. Guinness jumped from its usual #14 position to #9 on that weekend, reflecting a 125% boost over its year-to-date performance. While the shift in calendar dates and the absence of overlapping sports events partly explain the broader dip, the data clearly shows stout’s strong pull.

Forecast & Future Implications

1. Continued Stout Expansion: Expect more pubs and restaurants to broaden their stout offerings. Consumer curiosity, buoyed by social media, suggests stout’s growth could outlast any temporary Guinness shortages.
2. Diversification into Craft & Cocktails: Smaller Irish brands and craft producers are taking advantage of the stout craze, especially around high-profile holidays. Creative twists on Irish-themed cocktails will also remain popular, driven by a new wave of ‘mindful’ yet adventurous drinkers.
3. Premiumisation & Higher Margins: With light lager shares dipping, operators are seizing the chance to upsell higher-margin stout and whiskey products. This shift signals more premiumisation in pubs and bars worldwide.

Conclusion & Industry Outlook

Stout’s momentum shows no sign of slowing. From the UK to Canada, and across the on-premise sector, rising demand is encouraging innovation—from barrel-aged brews to nitrogen-infused pours and Irish-inspired cocktails. Brands should adapt now, refining their stout portfolios and engaging consumers with fresh flavour profiles and authentic experiences. If current trends hold, stout could well become the go-to option in pubs worldwide, challenging long-held assumptions about what today’s drinkers want.